CSK’s chances of entering playoffs now at just over 3%
With 15 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2022, as of Monday May 9, there remain as many as 32,768 possible combinations of results. Sunday’s two games have brought that figure down from a staggering 1,31,072. TOI looked at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of the individual teams making the playoffs cut.
As of the morning of Monday, May 9, here is how they stood:
*MI is definitely out of the running for a playoff spot. The best it can hope for is finishing fifth
*CSK after Sunday’s win vs DC still has a 3.4% chance of finishing joint fourth or even joint third, if it wins its three remaining matches
* CSK’s chances of finishing joint third however are a mere 0.3% and involve a tie of anywhere between four and seven teams at 14 points
* KKR’s chances of finishing in the top four dipped slightly after Sunday’s matches and now stands at 2.9%. They have only a 0.2% chance of making it to join third spot in a tie involving anywhere between four and seven teams
* PBKS have 25% chance of getting to fourth, third or even second place jointly, but cannot any longer hope to top the points table
*SRH saw their chances of finishing in one of the top four slots on points drop steeply from 42.5% to 21.2% after Sunday’s loss. DC’s loss to CSK means its chances slipped from 41.4% to 23%. Neither team can top the league this time
* The difference in the chances of the two teams despite the same points and number of matches is because of who they face in their remaining matches and how that affects final ranks
*RCB improved their chances of making it to one of the top four slots on points from 63% to 89.6% with Sunday’s win vs SRH
* Sunday’s results also improved RR’s already high chances of a top-four finish from 93.8% to 95.9%. They can do no worse than sixth now, even if they lose all their remaining matches
* GT and LSG, both in their first IPL season, are now certain to finish in the top four on points. Even if either side loses all its remaining matches, the worst it can do is to tie for fourth
* In short, bet on LSG, GT, RR and RCB making it to the playoffs with PBKS, DC and SRH, in that order, having a relatively small chance of displacing RR or RCB
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 32,768 current possible combinations of results with 15 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number.
To take a specific example, of the 32,768 possible result combinations, RR finish first to fourth on points in 31,424 combinations. That translates to a 95.9% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.