KKR’s playoff chances go up, an almost 90% chance of RCB finishing in top 4
KKR’s big 52 run win vs MI on Monday has boosted the two time champion’s chances of making the final four this season, but those chances overall still remain very low. With 14 matches left to play now in the league stage of IPL 2022, there remain as many as 16,384 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making the playoffs.
As of the morning of Tuesday, May 10, here is how they stood:
* MI was already out of the reckoning for a playoff spot even before Monday’s loss vs KKR. But the loss means that the best it can hope for now is finishing seventh
*CSK’s chances of a top four finish on points remain at a low 3.4%, but to do that they need to win their three remaining matches
* CSK’s chances of finishing joint third however are a mere 0.3% and involve a tie of anywhere between four and seven teams at 14 points
* KKR’s win on Monday doubled its chances of making the top four on points from 2.9% to 5.9% but they can do no better than joint third with anywhere between four and seven teams
*PBKS have a 25% chance of getting to fourth, third or even second jointly but cannot any longer hope to top the points table
*SRH’s chances of finishing in one of the top four slots on points remain at 21.2%. DC’s chances are only marginally higher at 23%. Neither team can top the points table
* The difference in the chances of the two teams despite the same points and number of matches is because of who they face in their remaining matches and how that affects final ranks
*RCB’s chances of making it to one of the top four slots on points stay at 89.6%. At worst, they’ll finish sixth on points
*RR’s chances of a top-four finish remain at 95.9%. They can do no worse than sixth even if they lose all their remaining matches
*GT and LSG, both in their first IPL season, are now certain to get to the top four slots on points. Even if either side loses all its remaining matches, the worst they can do is to tie for fourth place
* In short, bet on LSG, GT, RR and RCB making it to the playoffs with PBKS, DC and SRH, in that order, having a relatively small chance of displacing RR or RCB in the playoffs race
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 16,384 current possible combinations of results with 14 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number.
To take a specific example, of the 16,384 possible result combinations, RR finish first to fourth on points in 15,712 combinations. That translates to a 95.9% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.